It’s a bit of a mug’s game predicting who’s going to win music industry awards, but the same could be said about not predicting who’s going to win in the Grammys tomorrow. You mean you just don’t care? OK, understood.
Last time I tried this exercise was before the Jazz FM awards and this is how I did BEFORE http://marlbank.tumblr.com/post/41706599727/jazz-fm-awards-runners-and-riders and AFTER http://marlbank.tumblr.com/post/42012416559/jazz-fm-awards-winners Excluding the already known winners out of the “should go to" or “should surely go to" stabs I got five out of ten. Not too bad. After all as Daniel Kahneman in Thinking, Fast and Slow had it: "It is wrong to blame anyone for failing to forecast accurately in an unpredictable world." But he also added: “Claims for correct intuitions in an unpredictable situation are self-delusional at best, sometimes worse."
Moving swiftly on… let’s see if my Grammy predictions posted on Marlbank when the nominations were announced are nearer the mark. You can check on Monday when we all wake up to the results.
So, one more time, who should win and who will win in an oddly Herbie Hancock-less year.
Nominated for best Improvised jazz solo ‘Cross Roads’ Ravi Coltrane. Track from: Spirit Fiction Blue Note ‘Hot House’ Gary Burton & Chick Corea. Track from: Hot House Concord Jazz ‘Alice In Wonderland’ Chick Corea. Track from: Further Explorations (Chick Corea, Eddie Gomez & Paul Motian) Concord Jazz ‘J. Mac’ Kenny Garrett. Track from: Seeds From The Underground Mack Avenue Records ‘Ode’ Brad Mehldau. Track from: Ode (Brad Mehldau Trio) Nonesuch
Pretty good choices. A return to form for Garrett for sure. This category is probably the most subjective of the jazz ones, and it’s interesting that all the artists play in the post-bop domain and with the exception of Garrett record for major labels. The Grammys are in many ways all about the big labels.
Will win: Chick Corea. Should win: Kenny Garrett
Nominated for Best Jazz Vocal Album
Soul Shadows Denise Donatelli Savant Records 1619 Broadway: The Brill Building Project Kurt Elling Concord Jazz Live Al Jarreau (And The Metropole Orkest) Concord The Book Of Chet Luciana Souza Sunnyside Records Radio Music Society Esperanza Spalding Heads Up International
Donatelli is a surprise inclusion, unknown outside America, and it’s good to see Souza long on many people’s radar getting recognition.
Will win: Esperanza Spalding. Should win: Esperanza Spalding
Nominated for Best Jazz Instrumental Album
Further Explorations Chick Corea, Eddie Gomez & Paul Motian Concord Jazz Hot House Chick Corea & Gary Burton Concord Jazz Seeds From The Underground Kenny Garrett Mack Avenue Records Blue Moon Ahmad Jamal Jazz Village Unity Band Pat Metheny Unity Band Nonesuch
A strong list. Chick is a Grammy darling and you can’t rule him out here especially as his reimagining of Bill Evans on Further Explorations was such an imaginative exercise, and a poignant reminder of the much missed Motian. But, the big but, with Pat Metheny also in the running (the most beGrammied jazz musician ever) and more importantly the sheer vitality of his “with sax” Unity Band quartet he’s nominated for this time the Academy might just be swayed once again in his favour. It should be Ahmad Jamal’s year, but let’s not hold our breath even though the album is a credit to the great Pittsburgian and a wake-up call to pianists half or even a quarter of his age.
Will win: Unity Band. Should win: Blue Moon
Nominated for Best Large Jazz Ensemble Album Centennial: Newly Discovered Works Of Gil Evans Gil Evans Project ArtistShare For The Moment Bob Mintzer Big Band MCG Jazz Dear Diz (Every Day I Think Of You) Arturo Sandoval Concord Jazz
Bit of a ho hum selection (and only three names), although they’re all class acts. The Evans album was also up for a Jazz FM award in January.
Will win: Centennial: Newly Discovered Works of Gil Evans.Should win: Centennial: Newly Discovered Works of Gil Evans
Nominated for Best Latin Jazz Album
Flamenco Sketches Chano Domínguez Blue Note ¡Ritmo! The Clare Fischer Latin Jazz Big Band Clare Fischer Productions/Clavo Records Multiverse Bobby Sanabria Big Band Jazzheads Duos III Luciana Souza Sunnyside Records New Cuban Express Manuel Valera New Cuban Express Mavo Records
Hard to predict this one but Domínguez is the coming man with the imprimatur of no less a figure than Wynton Marsalis in his back catalogue, although Sanabria could get the nod.
Will win: Flamenco Sketches Should win: Flamenco Sketches
In other major categories Gregory Porter is surely a shoo-in for ‘Real Good Hands’ in the best traditional R&B performance category (why’s he not in jazz vocals?), and Hugh Masekela is up for a world music nod (again, categories, categories). Robert Glasper again is not in a jazz category but is up for best R&B album for Black Radio and best R&B performance for the Ledisi track ‘Gonna Be Alright (F.T.B)’, a sign the way his career is perceived to be going, while Dr John is nominated for the very fine Locked Down in the blues category. Finally, the category no one wants to be in, apart from obviously the nominees, the pop instrumental album nominees with Gerald Albright & Norman Brown, Chris Botti, Larry Carlton, Arun Shenoy, and of course Dave Koz, all vying for the accolade no-one surely can deep down want.
Stephen Graham
Gregory Porter, beyond category, above