Who will be garlanded the "token jazz" nominee, as some wags have it, at the Mercury prize nominations, which are announced on Wednesday?
Last year Roller Trio got lucky with their eponymous debut coming out of relative obscurity to bask in the attention. But will the organisers upset expectations by snubbing the genre entirely, or amplify the Leeds effect by choosing a band such as Shatner’s Bassoon? I would have thought that is unlikely even if Aquatic Ape Privilege (Wasp Millionaire) flew the flag for the creative Leeds scene once more.
Favourites, well I’m not sure if people go to the bookies to bet on jazz bands, but if they do then before the official odds are announced come nomination day then Sons of Kemet’s Burn (Naim) might pop up in brisk off-book dealings. The two-drummer/tuba/reeds Count Ossie and Mulatu-influenced livewires release Burn on Monday. The Kemets have been burning rubber for a while in the underground London jazz clubs at a bunch of memorable shows, and picked up a MOBO nomination for best jazz act this week.
Courtney Pine’s House of Legends (Destin-E) should also be in the running. A superb pan-Caribbean survey by the saxophone legend, with Mario Canonge making his presence felt in a tight and expressive zouk-flavoured set. Pine has been nominated for a Mercury before, and picked up further MOBO recognition this week as well alongside the Kemets.
Other possibles? Well, Reuben Fowler's Between Shadows (Edition) was a great debut by the young trumpeter, but he's maybe not just ready for Mercury recognition yet.
Martin Speake’s Always a First Time (Pumpkin) would be a very Cool, no pun intended, choice. But remember the majority of the judges are rock and pop pickers, and their take on jazz from the outside is different to the view from within. Also not every indie jazz label has entered for the judges' consideration.
The Discordian Trio's Hazlos Manzanos (discordiantrio.com) is one of the best Scottish free-jazz releases in years, but again their nomination would be a big surprise.
Singer Liane Carroll’s Ballads (Quiet Money) deserves the nod, its intensity quite scalding in places and probably the singer’s best album ever.
Human’s Being Human (Babel) would be a good call, one of the best improv albums of the year; and Tierkreis by Bruno Heinen (also Babel) would be an excellent choice. The Stockhausen set might, though, be too 'classical' for the judges who generally steer well clear of the genre these days even within a jazz setting.
I think you can count out crooner Anthony Strong’s Stepping Out (Naïve), but Gwyneth Herbert’s very creative release The Sea Cabinet (Monkeywood) deserves to be strongly considered, as does previous Mercury nominee Soweto Kinch this time for The Legend of Mike Smith (SKP), the saxophonist/MC’s most considered and daring album since Conversations with the Unseen, and his first to truly unify hip hop with jazz within his original world view.
Ellington in Anticipation (Subtone) would be a connoisseurs’ choice and actually a brave one as well. But I really can’t see it getting nominated.
The Impossible Gentlemen probably don’t qualify: I’m not sure of the small print of the Mercury rules but because there are three Americans in the band this factor might rule them out. But if it doesn't then Internationally Recognised Aliens (Basho) should stand a very strong chance.
What else? Well, Ian Shaw’s A Ghost in Every Bar: The Lyrics of Fran Landesman (Splashpoint) is the best male UK vocals-jazz album since Twentysomething a decade ago and should be considered; and previous nominee Kit Downes must be in with a chance with his fine quintet record Light From Old Stars (Basho).
Kairos 4tet’s Everything We Hold (Naim) might figure as well; and Van Morrison's Born To Sing: No Plan B (Blue Note), the singer's best album since 2005's Magic Time, could even slip in. Let’s see when Wednesday comes. Stephen Graham
Sons of Kemet pictured top